Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

309.39 – 313.68

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

286 – 264

Prediction missed · off by 36.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 595.8 ±8.7

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 33.34Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 136.28Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 139.77Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 471.2 ±9.3

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 114.95Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8727Glitch 2.0

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 71.27Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 127.46Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7763, 4795, 4561

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7763, 4795, 4561

Auto

37.3 12%

Teleop

173.8 58%

Endgame

89.2 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8429, 8727, 7890

/ 100 compat

Projected

313.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8429, 8727, 7890

Auto

53.7 18%

Teleop

177.0 58%

Endgame

73.1 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score309.4pts

Blue projected score313.7pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.3
Score range: 274–349
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 550 vs event baseline 196.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

595.8Season APEX471.2

37.3Auto53.7

173.8Teleop177

89.2Endgame73.1

65Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	37
teleop	174	116
endgame	69	111
foul	0	0
total	286	264

Result

Final score

286 – 264

Prediction missed · off by 36.5 pts

Match videos

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