Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

234.68 – 261.97

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

219 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 22.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 305.6 ±10.4

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 90.3Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4829Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 49.76Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2059The Hitchhikers

Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 94.62Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 403.5 ±9.8

6500GearCats

Season APEX 130.2Event APEX 121.53Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 42.29Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 98.15Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4534, 4829, 2059

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4534, 4829, 2059

Auto

31.0 14%

Teleop

130.3 59%

Endgame

60.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6500, 5160, 3506

/ 100 compat

Projected

262 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6500, 5160, 3506

Auto

61.5 23%

Teleop

146.8 56%

Endgame

54.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score234.7pts

Blue projected score262pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.3
Score range: 200–297
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 511 vs event baseline 197.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

305.6Season APEX403.5

31Auto61.5

130.3Teleop146.8

60.8Endgame54.3

17Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	42
teleop	125	160
endgame	51	90
foul	10	0
total	219	292

Result

Final score

219 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 22.9 pts

Match videos

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