Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

242.48 – 187.61

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

161 – 244

Prediction missed · off by 68.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 257.3 ±10.4

4935T-Rex

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 78.82Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7918ReCuRsIoN

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 73.95Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 89.71Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236.2 ±10.4

8738Slice

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 62.82Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11179The Power of Friendship

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 46.08Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4828RoboEagles

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 78.71Rank 7Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4935, 7918, 6502

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4935, 7918, 6502

Auto

38.2 17%

Teleop

133.0 58%

Endgame

59.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8738, 11179, 4828

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8738, 11179, 4828

Auto

37.3 20%

Teleop

88.4 48%

Endgame

57.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.65 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score242.5pts

Blue projected score187.6pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 13%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.9
Score range: 153–277
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 405 vs event baseline 197.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

257.3Season APEX236.2

38.2Auto37.3

133Teleop88.4

59.8Endgame57.5

54Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	47
teleop	93	115
endgame	41	62
foul	0	20
total	161	244

Result

Final score

161 – 244

Prediction missed · off by 68.9 pts

Match videos

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