Experimental AI-assisted analytics, predictions and ratings are estimates, not official results.
FRCinsights
FIRST North Carolina State Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction
Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

311.01 – 235.13

72%28%
Actual result
Winner

Red alliance

Final score

273 – 236

Prediction correct · off by 19.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 595.8 ±8.7
4561TerrorBytes
A
Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 145.8Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
4795Eastbots
A
Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 136.56Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
7763Carrborobotics
C
Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 28.65Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 305.6 ±10.4
4534Wired Wizards
C
Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 89.77Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
4829Titanium Tigers
C
Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 51.03Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
2059The Hitchhikers
C
Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 94.33Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4561, 4795, 7763
82
/ 100 compat
Projected
311 pts
~1.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4561, 4795, 7763
Auto
42.5 14%
Teleop
182.9 59%
Endgame
84.0 27%
Strengths
  • · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
  • · Thin autonomous coverage
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 34%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4534, 4829, 2059
67
/ 100 compat
Projected
235.1 pts
~0.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4534, 4829, 2059
Auto
27.8 12%
Teleop
134.1 60%
Endgame
61.0 27%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
  • · Thin autonomous coverage
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 34%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.85 · Blue 0.94
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score311pts
Blue projected score235.1pts
Red win probability72%
Event bonus sample230alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 34%, blue 29%
Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
  • Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
  • Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
  • Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin
75.9
Score range
200–346
Upset likelihood
28%
Data cutoff
2026-08-15
Model
apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring
Playoff

Combined score 509 vs event baseline 195.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

595.8Season APEX305.6
42.5Auto27.8
182.9Teleop134.1
84Endgame61
58Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

PhaseRedBlue
auto1444
teleop137113
endgame11764
foul515
total273236

Result

Final score

273 – 236

Prediction correct · off by 19.4 pts

Match videos

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