Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

324.44 – 220.29

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

192 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 85.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 454.2 ±9.3

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 73.54Rank 50Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 125.93Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 124.97Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.6 ±10.4

8738Slice

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 64.38Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 74.43Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4828RoboEagles

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 81.48Rank 7Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6894, 2724, 1533

/ 100 compat

Projected

324.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6894, 2724, 1533

Auto

49.6 16%

Teleop

187.4 61%

Endgame

71.9 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8738, 3229, 4828

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8738, 3229, 4828

Auto

39.5 18%

Teleop

105.7 49%

Endgame

71.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.87 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score324.4pts

Blue projected score220.3pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 13%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 104.2
Score range: 185–359
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 373 vs event baseline 195.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

454.2Season APEX227.6

49.6Auto39.5

187.4Teleop105.7

71.9Endgame71.2

70Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	23
teleop	124	88
endgame	17	70
foul	0	0
total	192	181

Result

Final score

192 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 85.9 pts

Match videos

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