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Experimental AI-assisted analytics, predictions and ratings are estimates, not official results.
FRCinsights
FIRST North Carolina State Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction
Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

481.91 – 264.88

94%6%
Actual result
Winner

Red alliance

Final score

577 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 99.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 618.2 ±8.8
9032RoboWhales
A
Season APEX 265Event APEX 193.17Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
8205Mind Over Metal
D
Season APEX 56Event APEX 28.41Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
9496LYNK
A+
Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 260.33Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.3 ±10.4
4935T-Rex
D
Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 84.26Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
7918ReCuRsIoN
C
Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 82.04Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
6502DARC SIDE
C
Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 98.58Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9032, 8205, 9496
79
/ 100 compat
Projected
481.9 pts
~2.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 9032, 8205, 9496
Auto
87.7 18%
Teleop
301.2 62%
Endgame
93.9 19%
Strengths
  • · 9496 anchors offense
  • · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 28%
Supercharged: 13%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4935, 7918, 6502
77
/ 100 compat
Projected
264.9 pts
~0.5 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4935, 7918, 6502
Auto
40.3 16%
Teleop
146.0 58%
Endgame
64.9 26%
Strengths
  • · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 28%
Supercharged: 13%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.31 · Blue 0.45
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score481.9pts
Blue projected score264.9pts
Red win probability94%
Event bonus sample230alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 28%, blue 24%
Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 6%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
  • Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
  • Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
  • Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin
217
Score range
230–517
Upset likelihood
6%
Data cutoff
2026-08-15
Model
apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring
Playoff

Combined score 738 vs event baseline 193.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

618.2Season APEX257.3
87.7Auto40.3
301.2Teleop146
93.9Endgame64.9
33Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

PhaseRedBlue
auto12630
teleop29777
endgame14449
foul105
total577161

Result

Final score

577 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 99.5 pts

Match videos

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