Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

284.97 – 432.12

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

225 – 315

Prediction correct · off by 88.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 454.2 ±9.3

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 58.02Rank 50Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 113.61Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 113.34Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 632.8 ±8.1

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 178.18Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 10.95Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 242.99Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6894, 2724, 1533

/ 100 compat

Projected

285 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6894, 2724, 1533

Auto

56.3 21%

Teleop

157.2 58%

Endgame

59.2 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9032, 6004, 9496

/ 100 compat

Projected

432.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9032, 6004, 9496

Auto

96.6 19%

Teleop

306.6 60%

Endgame

109.1 21%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.58 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score285pts

Blue projected score432.1pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -147.1
Score range: 248–469
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 540 vs event baseline 203.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

454.2Season APEX632.8

56.3Auto96.6

157.2Teleop306.6

59.2Endgame109.1

76Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	88
teleop	99	179
endgame	59	48
foul	0	0
total	225	315

Result

Final score

225 – 315

Prediction correct · off by 88.5 pts

Match videos

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