Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

300.2 – 431.65

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

383 – 438

Prediction correct · off by 44.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 471.2 ±9.3

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 122.34Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8727Glitch 2.0

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 67.47Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 110.39Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 632.8 ±8.1

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 177.78Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 10.92Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 242.95Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7890, 8727, 8429

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7890, 8727, 8429

Auto

48.6 17%

Teleop

161.0 55%

Endgame

82.8 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9032, 6004, 9496

/ 100 compat

Projected

431.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9032, 6004, 9496

Auto

100.0 19%

Teleop

318.2 61%

Endgame

106.2 20%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.65 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score300.2pts

Blue projected score431.7pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -131.4
Score range: 264–468
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 821 vs event baseline 201.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

471.2Season APEX632.8

48.6Auto100

161Teleop318.2

82.8Endgame106.2

35Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	75
teleop	223	235
endgame	107	128
foul	0	0
total	383	438

Result

Final score

383 – 438

Prediction correct · off by 44.6 pts

Match videos

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