Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

279.14 – 332.3

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

322 – 357

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 454.2 ±9.3

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 55.64Rank 50Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 111.76Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 111.74Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 647.8 ±8.7

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 58.42Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 135.07Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 138.81Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6894, 2724, 1533

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6894, 2724, 1533

Auto

51.6 19%

Teleop

158.1 60%

Endgame

55.8 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6639, 4795, 4561

/ 100 compat

Projected

332.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6639, 4795, 4561

Auto

50.7 15%

Teleop

188.1 57%

Endgame

89.0 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.98 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score279.1pts

Blue projected score332.3pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.2
Score range: 243–368
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 679 vs event baseline 199.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

454.2Season APEX647.8

51.6Auto50.7

158.1Teleop188.1

55.8Endgame89

81Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	69
teleop	152	180
endgame	80	108
foul	5	0
total	322	357

Result

Final score

322 – 357

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 pts

Match videos

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