Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

305.75 – 224.14

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

271 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 471.2 ±9.3

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 124.7Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8727Glitch 2.0

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 68.92Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 112.13Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.6 ±10.4

8738Slice

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 67.17Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4828RoboEagles

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 85.96Rank 7Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 71.01Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7890, 8727, 8429

/ 100 compat

Projected

305.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7890, 8727, 8429

Auto

51.0 17%

Teleop

167.2 56%

Endgame

79.3 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8738, 4828, 3229

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8738, 4828, 3229

Auto

37.4 17%

Teleop

107.1 50%

Endgame

70.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.79 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score305.8pts

Blue projected score224.1pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 13%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 81.6
Score range: 188–342
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 469 vs event baseline 197.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

471.2Season APEX227.6

51Auto37.4

167.2Teleop107.1

79.3Endgame70.2

26Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	37
teleop	121	93
endgame	105	38
foul	10	30
total	271	198

Result

Final score

271 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 pts

Match videos

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