Qualification · Qualification 99

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

267.69 – 144.19

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

235 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 58.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 323.3 ±9.8

8738Slice

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 67.15Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 77.88Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 122.66Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299 ±9.8

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 22.03Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8746Knights

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 25.09Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 97.07Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8738, 3229, 7890

/ 100 compat

Projected

267.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8738, 3229, 7890

Auto

26.8 10%

Teleop

155.3 59%

Endgame

81.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5607, 8746, 8429

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.2 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5607, 8746, 8429

Auto

43.7 30%

Teleop

63.7 44%

Endgame

36.7 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.85 · Blue 0.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score267.7pts

Blue projected score144.2pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 14%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 123.5
Score range: 109–303
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 464 vs event baseline 193.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

323.3Season APEX299

26.8Auto43.7

155.3Teleop63.7

81.3Endgame36.7

68Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	47
teleop	126	123
endgame	51	59
foul	0	0
total	235	229

Result

Final score

235 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 58.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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