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Experimental AI-assisted analytics, predictions and ratings are estimates, not official results.
FRCinsights
FIRST North Carolina State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 98

APEX prediction
Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

431.95 – 141.83

97%3%
Actual result
Winner

Red alliance

Final score

510 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 50.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 510.8 ±9.4
6500GearCats
C
Season APEX 130.2Event APEX 114.58Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
2640HOTBOTZ
C
Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 61.91Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
9496LYNK
A+
Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 255.46Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 210.9 ±10.4
11377Knightmare Robotics
D
Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 23.85Rank 46Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
11353Visionary Sparks
D
Season APEX 42Event APEX 27.82Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
2059The Hitchhikers
C
Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 90.16Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6500, 2640, 9496
81
/ 100 compat
Projected
432 pts
~2.5 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 6500, 2640, 9496
Auto
89.6 21%
Teleop
254.0 59%
Endgame
87.4 20%
Strengths
  • · 9496 anchors offense
  • · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 30%
Supercharged: 18%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 11377, 11353, 2059
49
/ 100 compat
Projected
141.8 pts
~0.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 11377, 11353, 2059
Auto
17.7 13%
Teleop
72.7 53%
Endgame
47.6 34%
Strengths
  • · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
  • · Thin autonomous coverage
  • · Below-average combined firepower
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 30%
Supercharged: 18%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.31
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score432pts
Blue projected score141.8pts
Red win probability97%
Event bonus sample230alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 30%, blue 16%
Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 8%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
  • Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
  • Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
  • Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin
290.1
Score range
108–466
Upset likelihood
3%
Data cutoff
2026-08-15
Model
apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 674 vs event baseline 191.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

510.8Season APEX210.9
89.6Auto17.7
254Teleop72.7
87.4Endgame47.6
19Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

PhaseRedBlue
auto12738
teleop33671
endgame4755
foul00
total510164

Result

Final score

510 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 50.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree

Match videos

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