Qualification · Qualification 97

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

294.04 – 159.37

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

198 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 98.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 500 ±9.8

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 49.23Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 202.32Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11417Nano Knights

Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 42.49Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.8 ±10.4

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 40.29Rank 40Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4829Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 61.63Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9297BOGOBOTS

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 57.45Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5160, 9032, 11417

/ 100 compat

Projected

294 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5160, 9032, 11417

Auto

63.2 22%

Teleop

181.7 62%

Endgame

47.2 16%

Strengths

· 9032 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10077, 4829, 9297

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10077, 4829, 9297

Auto

25.5 17%

Teleop

81.0 54%

Endgame

44.6 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.95 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score294pts

Blue projected score159.4pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 134.7
Score range: 124–329
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 256 vs event baseline 192.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

500Season APEX234.8

63.2Auto25.5

181.7Teleop81

47.2Endgame44.6

49Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	10
teleop	103	22
endgame	60	21
foul	10	5
total	198	58

Result

Final score

198 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 98.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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