Qualification · Qualification 96

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

163.35 – 211.8

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

201 – 177

Prediction missed · off by 36.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.2 ±9.8

3196Team SPORK

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 43.98Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 93.41Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10302Byte Force

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 25.96Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.2 ±10.4

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 103.52Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 30.85Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 77.43Rank 50Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3196, 3506, 10302

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3196, 3506, 10302

Auto

30.1 19%

Teleop

85.7 53%

Endgame

45.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6502, 8205, 6894

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6502, 8205, 6894

Auto

38.3 18%

Teleop

118.1 56%

Endgame

56.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.93 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score163.4pts

Blue projected score211.8pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48.5
Score range: 128–247
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 378 vs event baseline 192.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.2Season APEX213.2

30.1Auto38.3

85.7Teleop118.1

45.3Endgame56.3

94Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	30
teleop	87	96
endgame	49	36
foul	0	15
total	201	177

Result

Final score

201 – 177

Prediction missed · off by 36.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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