Qualification · Qualification 95

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

242.38 – 185.25

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

210 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 20.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 484.3 ±9.3

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 64.55Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11179The Power of Friendship

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 47.57Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 130.26Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.2 ±9.8

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 150.8Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11146CitrusDuckz

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 6.24Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3336Zimanators

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 28.21Rank 45Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6639, 11179, 2724

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6639, 11179, 2724

Auto

31.4 13%

Teleop

138.0 58%

Endgame

67.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4561, 11146, 3336

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4561, 11146, 3336

Auto

37.5 20%

Teleop

97.3 53%

Endgame

48.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.53 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score242.4pts

Blue projected score185.3pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 11%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.1
Score range: 150–277
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 387 vs event baseline 192.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

484.3Season APEX346.2

31.4Auto37.5

138Teleop97.3

67.9Endgame48.8

68Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	49
teleop	86	108
endgame	12	20
foul	35	0
total	210	177

Result

Final score

210 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 20.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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