Qualification · Qualification 94

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.72 – 193.5

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

53 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 8.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 252.4 ±10.4

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 12.35Rank 36Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8757GeodeBots

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 18.83Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 16.54Rank 49Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 210.8 ±10.4

4935T-Rex

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 83.01Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 86.44Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10248Iron Byrds

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 24.05Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2682, 8757, 9788

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.7 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2682, 8757, 9788

Auto

12.5 31%

Teleop

22.6 56%

Endgame

5.2 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4935, 4534, 10248

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4935, 4534, 10248

Auto

25.5 13%

Teleop

107.4 56%

Endgame

57.7 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.48 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score47.7pts

Blue projected score193.5pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -145.8
Score range: 13–229
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 258 vs event baseline 192.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

252.4Season APEX210.8

12.5Auto25.5

22.6Teleop107.4

5.2Endgame57.7

43Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	40
teleop	17	65
endgame	11	35
foul	0	65
total	53	205

Result

Final score

53 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 8.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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