Qualification · Qualification 92

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

257.79 – 352.01

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

249 – 150

Prediction missed · off by 105.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 366.9 ±9.8

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 120.73Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8727Glitch 2.0

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 55.1Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4828RoboEagles

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 81.96Rank 7Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 450.2 ±9.3

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 91.07Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 41.31Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 219.63Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7890, 8727, 4828

/ 100 compat

Projected

257.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7890, 8727, 4828

Auto

47.9 19%

Teleop

136.3 54%

Endgame

68.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3229, 7763, 9032

/ 100 compat

Projected

352 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3229, 7763, 9032

Auto

48.3 14%

Teleop

218.8 62%

Endgame

86.6 24%

Strengths

· 9032 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.79 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score257.8pts

Blue projected score352pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -94.2
Score range: 223–387
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 399 vs event baseline 193.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

366.9Season APEX450.2

47.9Auto48.3

136.3Teleop218.8

68.4Endgame86.6

26Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	26
teleop	141	96
endgame	50	28
foul	20	0
total	249	150

Result

Final score

249 – 150

Prediction missed · off by 105.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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