Qualification · Qualification 90

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.77 – 193.63

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

121 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 159 ±10.4

10302Byte Force

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 24.38Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 36.32Rank 40Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 29.07Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 351.7 ±9.8

6500GearCats

Season APEX 130.2Event APEX 107.67Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 60.81Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3336Zimanators

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 25.15Rank 45Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10302, 10077, 8205

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.8 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10302, 10077, 8205

Auto

22.9 26%

Teleop

43.8 50%

Endgame

20.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6500, 6639, 3336

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6500, 6639, 3336

Auto

41.8 22%

Teleop

103.7 55%

Endgame

43.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.59 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score89.8pts

Blue projected score193.6pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 11%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -103.9
Score range: 55–229
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 354 vs event baseline 193.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

159Season APEX351.7

22.9Auto41.8

43.8Teleop103.7

20.7Endgame43.8

69Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	20
teleop	70	115
endgame	20	98
foul	0	0
total	121	233

Result

Final score

121 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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