Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

110.49 – 107.35

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

58 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 59.4 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 156.7 ±10.4

6888Foothills Robotics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 63.43Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX -Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 16.86Rank 40Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.4 ±10.4

11377Knightmare Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX -Rank 46Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10121TMSA MechaTiger

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 44.86Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 32.29Rank 36Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6888, 5160, 10077

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6888, 5160, 10077

Auto

27.3 25%

Teleop

58.8 54%

Endgame

22.9 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11377, 10121, 2682

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11377, 10121, 2682

Auto

18.8 19%

Teleop

64.2 64%

Endgame

17.2 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score110.5pts

Blue projected score107.3pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 11%, blue 10%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.1
Score range: 74–143
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 99 vs event baseline 181.2.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

156.7Season APEX245.4

18.3Auto9.7

43.7Teleop49.1

16.9Endgame11.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	9
teleop	37	22
endgame	3	10
foul	0	0
total	58	41

Result

Final score

58 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 59.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree