Qualification · Qualification 89

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

137.47 – 189.87

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

129 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 308.4 ±9.8

11377Knightmare Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 25.85Rank 46Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 96.94Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 14.68Rank 49Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369.3 ±9.8

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 22.77Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11179The Power of Friendship

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 43.96Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 123.14Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11377, 3506, 9788

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11377, 3506, 9788

Auto

34.7 26%

Teleop

71.0 53%

Endgame

28.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5607, 11179, 4795

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5607, 11179, 4795

Auto

37.1 20%

Teleop

93.6 51%

Endgame

52.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.92 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score137.5pts

Blue projected score189.9pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 13%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.4
Score range: 102–225
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 348 vs event baseline 193.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

308.4Season APEX369.3

34.7Auto37.1

71Teleop93.6

28.5Endgame52.7

42Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	57
teleop	49	120
endgame	64	42
foul	0	0
total	129	219

Result

Final score

129 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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