Qualification · Qualification 88

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

180.93 – 390.43

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

163 – 428

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 202.6 ±10.4

3196Team SPORK

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 47.56Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4935T-Rex

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 83.53Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 49.84Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 597.9 ±8.8

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 128.31Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 246.67Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9150Labyrinth Robotics

Season APEX 62.2Event APEX 15.45Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3196, 4935, 5160

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.9 pts

~0.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3196, 4935, 5160

Auto

30.3 17%

Teleop

106.1 58%

Endgame

45.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2724, 9496, 9150

/ 100 compat

Projected

390.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2724, 9496, 9150

Auto

73.4 19%

Teleop

213.2 56%

Endgame

95.6 25%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.34 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score180.9pts

Blue projected score390.4pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -209.5
Score range: 146–425
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 591 vs event baseline 192.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

202.6Season APEX597.9

30.3Auto73.4

106.1Teleop213.2

45.6Endgame95.6

35Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	59
teleop	77	287
endgame	45	77
foul	5	5
total	163	428

Result

Final score

163 – 428

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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