Qualification · Qualification 87

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.88 – 213.06

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 136.4 ±10.4

11146CitrusDuckz

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 6.45Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10121TMSA MechaTiger

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 18.25Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 28.18Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.7 ±10.4

1225The Gorillas

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 65.34Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4828RoboEagles

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 83.4Rank 7Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4829Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 64.32Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11146, 10121, 11353

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.9 pts

~0.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11146, 10121, 11353

Auto

18.6 45%

Teleop

7.6 18%

Endgame

15.4 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1225, 4828, 4829

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1225, 4828, 4829

Auto

41.5 20%

Teleop

94.0 46%

Endgame

69.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.4 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score52.9pts

Blue projected score213.1pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 9%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -160.2
Score range: 18–248
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 252 vs event baseline 192.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

136.4Season APEX251.7

18.6Auto41.5

7.6Teleop94

15.4Endgame69.7

59Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	55
teleop	11	98
endgame	9	39
foul	0	15
total	45	207

Result

Final score

45 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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