Qualification · Qualification 86

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

179.99 – 62.75

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

225 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 35.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 255.9 ±9.8

2640HOTBOTZ

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 56.56Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 82.87Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 40.56Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 123.6 ±10.4

8746Knights

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 20.86Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10248Iron Byrds

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 22.49Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6888Foothills Robotics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 19.4Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2640, 4534, 6004

/ 100 compat

Projected

180 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2640, 4534, 6004

Auto

39.2 22%

Teleop

106.1 60%

Endgame

32.6 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8746, 10248, 6888

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.7 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8746, 10248, 6888

Auto

26.6 41%

Teleop

9.5 15%

Endgame

28.3 44%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.91 · Blue 0.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score180pts

Blue projected score62.7pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 9%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 117.2
Score range: 28–215
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 313 vs event baseline 193.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

255.9Season APEX123.6

39.2Auto26.6

106.1Teleop9.5

32.6Endgame28.3

3Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	30
teleop	151	36
endgame	18	22
foul	15	0
total	225	88

Result

Final score

225 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 35.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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