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Experimental AI-assisted analytics, predictions and ratings are estimates, not official results.
FRCinsights
FIRST North Carolina State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 85

APEX prediction
Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

242.38 – 84.85

88%12%
Actual result
Winner

Red alliance

Final score

202 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 23.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 293.2 ±10.4
2059The Hitchhikers
C
Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 94.21Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
9297BOGOBOTS
C
Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 62.23Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
7918ReCuRsIoN
C
Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 85.94Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316 ±9.8
9559EagleTron
D
Season APEX 39Event APEX 30.88Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
7763Carrborobotics
C
Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 44.23Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
2682Boneyard Robotics 2682
B
Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 9.74Rank 36Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2059, 9297, 7918
69
/ 100 compat
Projected
242.4 pts
~2.1 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 2059, 9297, 7918
Auto
26.2 12%
Teleop
137.3 61%
Endgame
62.5 28%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
  • · Thin autonomous coverage
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 23%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9559, 7763, 2682
37
/ 100 compat
Projected
84.9 pts
~0.5 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 9559, 7763, 2682
Auto
11.1 14%
Teleop
43.2 55%
Endgame
23.8 30%
Strengths
  • · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
  • · Thin autonomous coverage
  • · Below-average combined firepower
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 23%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.06 · Blue 0.49
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score242.4pts
Blue projected score84.9pts
Red win probability88%
Event bonus sample230alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 23%, blue 17%
Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
  • Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
  • Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
  • Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin
157.5
Score range
50–277
Upset likelihood
12%
Data cutoff
2026-08-15
Model
apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 281 vs event baseline 193.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

293.2Season APEX316
26.2Auto11.1
137.3Teleop43.2
62.5Endgame23.8
35Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

PhaseRedBlue
auto2121
teleop10828
endgame7325
foul05
total20279

Result

Final score

202 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 23.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree

Match videos

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