Qualification · Qualification 83

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

193.09 – 183.01

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

233 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 36 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 352.8 ±9.8

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 123.86Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3196Team SPORK

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 43.78Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 25.45Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409.7 ±9.8

11417Nano Knights

Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 39.71Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 119.81Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 23.49Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2724, 3196, 8205

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2724, 3196, 8205

Auto

30.8 16%

Teleop

97.3 51%

Endgame

64.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11417, 7890, 5607

/ 100 compat

Projected

183 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11417, 7890, 5607

Auto

31.2 19%

Teleop

92.6 56%

Endgame

42.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score193.1pts

Blue projected score183pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.1
Score range: 148–228
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 448 vs event baseline 192.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

352.8Season APEX409.7

30.8Auto31.2

97.3Teleop92.6

64Endgame42.5

67Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	41
teleop	147	107
endgame	56	67
foul	10	0
total	233	215

Result

Final score

233 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 36 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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