Qualification · Qualification 82

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

187.01 – 304.78

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

278 – 471

Prediction correct · off by 128.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 385.2 ±9.8

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 77.97Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8727Glitch 2.0

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 51.87Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4829Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 57.17Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 418.9 ±9.4

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 231.07Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1225The Gorillas

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 50.74Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 22.97Rank 40Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8429, 8727, 4829

/ 100 compat

Projected

187 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8429, 8727, 4829

Auto

36.0 19%

Teleop

108.2 58%

Endgame

41.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9496, 1225, 10077

/ 100 compat

Projected

304.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9496, 1225, 10077

Auto

57.2 19%

Teleop

176.2 57%

Endgame

75.0 24%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.71 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score187pts

Blue projected score304.8pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -117.8
Score range: 153–339
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 749 vs event baseline 190.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

385.2Season APEX418.9

36Auto57.2

108.2Teleop176.2

41.1Endgame75

40Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	97
teleop	135	229
endgame	83	105
foul	5	40
total	278	471

Result

Final score

278 – 471

Prediction correct · off by 128.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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