Qualification · Qualification 81

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

200.31 – 142.17

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

100 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 59.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 212.2 ±10.4

2640HOTBOTZ

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 68.04Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3336Zimanators

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 35.36Rank 45Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4828RoboEagles

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 96.91Rank 7Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 189.3 ±9.8

6888Foothills Robotics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 22.8Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 37.47Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4935T-Rex

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 81.9Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2640, 3336, 4828

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2640, 3336, 4828

Auto

41.6 21%

Teleop

91.3 47%

Endgame

61.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6888, 6004, 4935

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6888, 6004, 4935

Auto

33.9 23%

Teleop

75.9 51%

Endgame

38.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.62 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score200.3pts

Blue projected score142.2pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.1
Score range: 108–234
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 260 vs event baseline 191.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

212.2Season APEX189.3

41.6Auto33.9

91.3Teleop75.9

61Endgame38.1

18Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	23
teleop	31	95
endgame	15	42
foul	0	0
total	100	160

Result

Final score

100 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 59.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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