Qualification · Qualification 80

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

61.31 – 165.76

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

112 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 48.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 134 ±10.4

10248Iron Byrds

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 18.19Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10302Byte Force

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 17.56Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 25.56Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.3 ±9.8

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 43.49Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9559EagleTron

Season APEX 39Event APEX 27.18Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 95.09Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10248, 10302, 11353

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10248, 10302, 11353

Auto

15.9 29%

Teleop

12.3 23%

Endgame

26.1 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5160, 9559, 3506

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5160, 9559, 3506

Auto

52.2 32%

Teleop

96.0 58%

Endgame

17.2 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.57 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score61.3pts

Blue projected score165.8pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 9%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -104.4
Score range: 27–200
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 324 vs event baseline 191.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

134Season APEX312.3

15.9Auto52.2

12.3Teleop96

26.1Endgame17.2

85Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	51
teleop	39	106
endgame	39	50
foul	5	5
total	112	212

Result

Final score

112 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 48.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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