Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

217.65 – 44.19

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

178 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 40.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 324 ±9.8

6500GearCats

Season APEX 130.2Event APEX 114.79Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11179The Power of Friendship

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 47.22Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 55.64Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148.2 ±10.4

10121TMSA MechaTiger

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 14.84Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8757GeodeBots

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 18.41Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9150Labyrinth Robotics

Season APEX 62.2Event APEX 10.94Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6500, 11179, 7763

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6500, 11179, 7763

Auto

40.6 19%

Teleop

121.3 56%

Endgame

53.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10121, 8757, 9150

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.2 pts

~0.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10121, 8757, 9150

Auto

15.1 34%

Teleop

16.4 37%

Endgame

12.9 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2 · Blue 0.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score217.7pts

Blue projected score44.2pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 9%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 173.5
Score range: 9–253
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 263 vs event baseline 192.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

324Season APEX148.2

40.6Auto15.1

121.3Teleop16.4

53.4Endgame12.9

83Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	18
teleop	108	29
endgame	36	18
foul	5	20
total	178	85

Result

Final score

178 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 40.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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