Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.29 – 376.22

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

169 – 317

Prediction correct · off by 62.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.4 ±10.4

7918ReCuRsIoN

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 82.75Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11146CitrusDuckz

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 1.73Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8746Knights

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 18.81Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 571.2 ±9.3

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 134.31Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 148.22Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 93.69Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7918, 11146, 8746

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.3 pts

~0.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7918, 11146, 8746

Auto

39.4 41%

Teleop

36.6 38%

Endgame

19.7 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4795, 4561, 6502

/ 100 compat

Projected

376.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4795, 4561, 6502

Auto

58.3 16%

Teleop

222.4 60%

Endgame

91.7 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.26 · Blue 2.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score103.3pts

Blue projected score376.2pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 14%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -272.9
Score range: 68–411
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 486 vs event baseline 191.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190.4Season APEX571.2

39.4Auto58.3

36.6Teleop222.4

19.7Endgame91.7

57Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	60
teleop	89	172
endgame	46	85
foul	10	0
total	169	317

Result

Final score

169 – 317

Prediction correct · off by 62.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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