Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196.62 – 139.47

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

247 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 73 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.4 ±9.8

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 110.3Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 72.44Rank 50Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11285Purple Autobots

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 13.88Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 246.8 ±10.4

9297BOGOBOTS

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 55.86Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 10.42Rank 49Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 73.19Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1533, 6894, 11285

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1533, 6894, 11285

Auto

33.3 18%

Teleop

105.4 56%

Endgame

49.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9297, 9788, 4534

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9297, 9788, 4534

Auto

24.1 19%

Teleop

71.2 56%

Endgame

32.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.6 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score196.6pts

Blue projected score139.5pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.2
Score range: 105–231
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 482 vs event baseline 191.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.4Season APEX246.8

33.3Auto24.1

105.4Teleop71.2

49.5Endgame32.9

67Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	29
teleop	157	120
endgame	54	76
foul	0	10
total	247	235

Result

Final score

247 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 73 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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