Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

158.41 – 407.87

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

198 – 311

Prediction correct · off by 68.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391.1 ±9.8

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 56.51Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 7.16Rank 36Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 94.74Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 459.7 ±9.8

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 233.28Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8738Slice

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 65.77Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2059The Hitchhikers

Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 108.82Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6639, 2682, 3229

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.4 pts

~0.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6639, 2682, 3229

Auto

10.5 7%

Teleop

92.4 61%

Endgame

48.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9032, 8738, 2059

/ 100 compat

Projected

407.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9032, 8738, 2059

Auto

41.2 10%

Teleop

265.2 66%

Endgame

95.2 24%

Strengths

· 9032 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.25 · Blue 2.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score158.4pts

Blue projected score407.9pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 9%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -249.5
Score range: 124–442
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 509 vs event baseline 190.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391.1Season APEX459.7

10.5Auto41.2

92.4Teleop265.2

48.4Endgame95.2

44Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	46
teleop	103	181
endgame	42	84
foul	5	0
total	198	311

Result

Final score

198 – 311

Prediction correct · off by 68.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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