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Experimental AI-assisted analytics, predictions and ratings are estimates, not official results.
FRCinsights
FIRST North Carolina State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction
Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

138.21 – 62.02

72%28%
Actual result
Winner

Red alliance

Final score

168 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 34.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.8 ±9.8
11417Nano Knights
B
Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 36.56Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
11353Visionary Sparks
D
Season APEX 42Event APEX 19.2Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
8429Valence Robotics
B
Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 82.45Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148.2 ±10.4
3336Zimanators
D
Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 30.05Rank 45Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
6888Foothills Robotics
D
Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 20.38Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
10302Byte Force
D
Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 11.59Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11417, 11353, 8429
51
/ 100 compat
Projected
138.2 pts
~1.7 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 11417, 11353, 8429
Auto
44.0 36%
Teleop
55.7 45%
Endgame
22.8 19%
Strengths
  • · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
  • · Below-average combined firepower
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 17%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3336, 6888, 10302
19
/ 100 compat
Projected
62 pts
~0.7 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 3336, 6888, 10302
Auto
22.8 37%
Teleop
4.2 7%
Endgame
34.7 56%
Strengths
  • · Strong autonomous coverage
  • · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
  • · Below-average combined firepower
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 17%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.68 · Blue 0.72
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score138.2pts
Blue projected score62pts
Red win probability72%
Event bonus sample230alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 17%, blue 11%
Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
  • Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
  • Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
  • Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin
76.2
Score range
28–172
Upset likelihood
28%
Data cutoff
2026-08-15
Model
apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 191.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.8Season APEX148.2
44Auto22.8
55.7Teleop4.2
22.8Endgame34.7
53Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

PhaseRedBlue
auto1533
teleop8547
endgame6321
foul50
total168101

Result

Final score

168 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 34.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree

Match videos

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