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Experimental AI-assisted analytics, predictions and ratings are estimates, not official results.
FRCinsights
FIRST North Carolina State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction
Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.04 – 138.31

32%68%
Actual result
Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 27.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 140.8 ±10.4
10077The H.E.I.S.T.
D
Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 26.91Rank 40Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
11377Knightmare Robotics
D
Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 22.8Rank 46Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
9559EagleTron
D
Season APEX 39Event APEX 28.33Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.2 ±9.8
6004f(x) Robotics
D
Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 36.29Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
4828RoboEagles
C
Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 93.39Rank 7Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
9150Labyrinth Robotics
D
Season APEX 62.2Event APEX 8.63Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10077, 11377, 9559
39
/ 100 compat
Projected
78 pts
~0.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 10077, 11377, 9559
Auto
25.1 31%
Teleop
40.6 51%
Endgame
14.5 18%
Strengths
  • · Strong autonomous coverage
  • · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
  • · Below-average combined firepower
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 11%
Supercharged: 8%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6004, 4828, 9150
51
/ 100 compat
Projected
138.3 pts
~1.6 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 6004, 4828, 9150
Auto
38.6 28%
Teleop
56.2 41%
Endgame
41.3 30%
Strengths
  • · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
  • · Below-average combined firepower
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 11%
Supercharged: 8%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.86 · Blue 1.59
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score78pts
Blue projected score138.3pts
Red win probability32%
Event bonus sample230alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 11%, blue 15%
Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 7%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
  • Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
  • Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
  • Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin
-60.3
Score range
43–173
Upset likelihood
32%
Data cutoff
2026-08-15
Model
apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 215 vs event baseline 192.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

140.8Season APEX215.2
25.1Auto38.6
40.6Teleop56.2
14.5Endgame41.3
56Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

PhaseRedBlue
auto2949
teleop586
endgame1130
foul50
total50165

Result

Final score

50 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 27.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree

Match videos

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