Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

99.55 – 200.05

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

174 – 285

Prediction correct · off by 79.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 187.8 ±10.4

11146CitrusDuckz

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX -6.87Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 40.63Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 65.79Rank 50Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 363.2 ±9.3

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 44.94Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8738Slice

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 55.22Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 99.89Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11146, 5160, 6894

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.6 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11146, 5160, 6894

Auto

36.5 38%

Teleop

45.9 47%

Endgame

14.4 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7763, 8738, 1533

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7763, 8738, 1533

Auto

16.9 9%

Teleop

121.0 61%

Endgame

60.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.6 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score99.6pts

Blue projected score200.1pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 10%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -100.5
Score range: 66–234
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 459 vs event baseline 191.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

187.8Season APEX363.2

36.5Auto16.9

45.9Teleop121

14.4Endgame60.3

53Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	25
teleop	91	159
endgame	24	81
foul	0	20
total	174	285

Result

Final score

174 – 285

Prediction correct · off by 79.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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