Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

243.42 – 147.02

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

165 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 44.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 441.7 ±9.3

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 144.38Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 70.91Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10248Iron Byrds

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 28.13Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 152.3 ±10.4

10121TMSA MechaTiger

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 19.88Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 100.15Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 26.99Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4795, 6639, 10248

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4795, 6639, 10248

Auto

29.8 13%

Teleop

135.7 58%

Endgame

67.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10121, 3229, 8205

/ 100 compat

Projected

147 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10121, 3229, 8205

Auto

22.5 15%

Teleop

78.2 54%

Endgame

44.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.73 · Blue 0.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score243.4pts

Blue projected score147pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 13%, blue 6%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96.4
Score range: 112–278
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 302 vs event baseline 192.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

441.7Season APEX152.3

29.8Auto22.5

135.7Teleop78.2

67.4Endgame44.8

38Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	21
teleop	88	52
endgame	51	64
foul	0	0
total	165	137

Result

Final score

165 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 44.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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