Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.55 – 497.64

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

93 – 420

Prediction correct · off by 48.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 175.5 ±10.4

3196Team SPORK

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 45.51Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 22.41Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11285Purple Autobots

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 5.63Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 716.1 ±8.8

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 238.51Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 16.06Rank 36Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 243.07Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3196, 5607, 11285

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.6 pts

~0.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3196, 5607, 11285

Auto

19.2 28%

Teleop

22.9 33%

Endgame

26.8 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9496, 2682, 9032

/ 100 compat

Projected

497.6 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9496, 2682, 9032

Auto

80.8 16%

Teleop

313.0 63%

Endgame

103.6 21%

Strengths

· 9032 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.25 · Blue 2.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score73.6pts

Blue projected score497.6pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -424.1
Score range: 40–532
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 513 vs event baseline 191.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

175.5Season APEX716.1

19.2Auto80.8

22.9Teleop313

26.8Endgame103.6

78Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	80
teleop	26	272
endgame	41	68
foul	15	0
total	93	420

Result

Final score

93 – 420

Prediction correct · off by 48.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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