Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231.75 – 196.17

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

277 – 299

Prediction missed · off by 74 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 396.8 ±9.8

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 5.31Rank 49Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2059The Hitchhikers

Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 103.23Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 123.21Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 398.4 ±9.8

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 61.42Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4829Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 52.08Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 82.67Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9788, 2059, 2724

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9788, 2059, 2724

Auto

27.6 13%

Teleop

133.6 63%

Endgame

51.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4534, 4829, 3506

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4534, 4829, 3506

Auto

35.4 19%

Teleop

110.7 59%

Endgame

42.5 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score231.8pts

Blue projected score196.2pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.6
Score range: 162–266
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 576 vs event baseline 189.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

396.8Season APEX398.4

27.6Auto35.4

133.6Teleop110.7

51.4Endgame42.5

32Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	58
teleop	161	180
endgame	85	61
foul	0	0
total	277	299

Result

Final score

277 – 299

Prediction missed · off by 74 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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