Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

128.61 – 148.02

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

101 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 45.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 211.9 ±10.4

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 68.02Rank 50Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8727Glitch 2.0

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 55.01Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8746Knights

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 5.58Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 197.9 ±10.4

10121TMSA MechaTiger

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 15.89Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6500GearCats

Season APEX 130.2Event APEX 111.49Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10248Iron Byrds

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 20.64Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6894, 8727, 8746

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6894, 8727, 8746

Auto

34.8 27%

Teleop

57.7 45%

Endgame

35.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10121, 6500, 10248

/ 100 compat

Projected

148 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10121, 6500, 10248

Auto

41.6 29%

Teleop

67.8 47%

Endgame

33.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score128.6pts

Blue projected score148pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 14%, blue 9%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.4
Score range: 95–182
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 313 vs event baseline 189.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

211.9Season APEX197.9

34.8Auto41.6

57.7Teleop67.8

35.6Endgame33.5

52Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	26
teleop	38	121
endgame	23	60
foul	15	5
total	101	212

Result

Final score

101 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 45.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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