Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

161.2 – 75.5

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

103 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 40.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 166.1 ±10.4

11285Purple Autobots

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 16.73Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4935T-Rex

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 101.73Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9559EagleTron

Season APEX 39Event APEX 42.74Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 175.8 ±10.4

3196Team SPORK

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 55.65Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11377Knightmare Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 24.56Rank 46Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11146CitrusDuckz

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX -4.71Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11285, 4935, 9559

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11285, 4935, 9559

Auto

24.6 15%

Teleop

80.5 49%

Endgame

59.0 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3196, 11377, 11146

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3196, 11377, 11146

Auto

21.3 26%

Teleop

27.5 34%

Endgame

32.2 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.74 · Blue 0.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score161.2pts

Blue projected score75.5pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 13%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.7
Score range: 42–195
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 155 vs event baseline 191.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

166.1Season APEX175.8

24.6Auto21.3

80.5Teleop27.5

59Endgame32.2

23Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	30
teleop	52	12
endgame	32	10
foul	0	0
total	103	52

Result

Final score

103 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 40.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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