Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

334.33 – 167.33

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

543 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 127 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 583.9 ±8.8

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 45.06Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 209.76Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2059The Hitchhikers

Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 79.51Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265.8 ±9.8

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 114.05Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6888Foothills Robotics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 27Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 26.28Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6639, 9496, 2059

/ 100 compat

Projected

334.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6639, 9496, 2059

Auto

41.1 13%

Teleop

200.9 62%

Endgame

80.5 25%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1533, 6888, 5607

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.3 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1533, 6888, 5607

Auto

39.7 24%

Teleop

89.3 55%

Endgame

33.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.18 · Blue 0.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score334.3pts

Blue projected score167.3pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 167
Score range: 133–368
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 665 vs event baseline 189.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

583.9Season APEX265.8

41.1Auto39.7

200.9Teleop89.3

80.5Endgame33.2

77Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	40
teleop	330	44
endgame	122	38
foul	5	0
total	543	122

Result

Final score

543 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 127 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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