Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.46 – 173.67

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

118 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 18.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 172.1 ±10.4

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 25.33Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 3.01Rank 49Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7918ReCuRsIoN

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 68.12Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 170.3 ±10.4

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 55.81Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3459Team PyroTech

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 16.83Rank 43Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 101.03Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11353, 9788, 7918

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11353, 9788, 7918

Auto

25.3 28%

Teleop

47.6 54%

Endgame

15.9 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5160, 3459, 3229

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5160, 3459, 3229

Auto

31.3 19%

Teleop

103.3 62%

Endgame

32.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.77 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score96.5pts

Blue projected score173.7pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 9%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77.2
Score range: 62–208
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 277 vs event baseline 187.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

172.1Season APEX170.3

25.3Auto31.3

47.6Teleop103.3

15.9Endgame32.4

34Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	64
teleop	39	63
endgame	7	32
foul	45	0
total	118	159

Result

Final score

118 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 18.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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