Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

268.07 – 181.02

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

251 – 260

Prediction missed · off by 48 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 453.1 ±8.7

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 131.14Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 51.99Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 84.94Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 457.5 ±9.8

8757GeodeBots

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -0.39Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11417Nano Knights

Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 31.8Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 149.61Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7890, 6004, 3506

/ 100 compat

Projected

268.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7890, 6004, 3506

Auto

42.7 16%

Teleop

163.2 62%

Endgame

58.9 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8757, 11417, 4561

/ 100 compat

Projected

181 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8757, 11417, 4561

Auto

37.7 21%

Teleop

89.8 50%

Endgame

53.9 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.77 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score268.1pts

Blue projected score181pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87
Score range: 147–302
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 511 vs event baseline 186.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

453.1Season APEX457.5

42.7Auto37.7

163.2Teleop89.8

58.9Endgame53.9

36Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	44
teleop	155	162
endgame	43	34
foul	0	20
total	251	260

Result

Final score

251 – 260

Prediction missed · off by 48 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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