Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

108.1 – 187.24

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 293.3 ±10.4

2640HOTBOTZ

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 53.23Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 21.15Rank 36Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 33.72Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 385.4 ±9.8

11146CitrusDuckz

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX -1.09Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4829Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 51.93Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 136.4Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2640, 2682, 8205

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2640, 2682, 8205

Auto

27.8 27%

Teleop

66.8 64%

Endgame

9.3 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11146, 4829, 4795

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11146, 4829, 4795

Auto

40.7 22%

Teleop

85.7 47%

Endgame

57.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.77 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score108.1pts

Blue projected score187.2pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.1
Score range: 74–221
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 316 vs event baseline 186.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

293.3Season APEX385.4

27.8Auto40.7

66.8Teleop85.7

9.3Endgame57.4

46Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	29
teleop	48	138
endgame	30	28
foul	0	15
total	106	210

Result

Final score

106 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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