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Experimental AI-assisted analytics, predictions and ratings are estimates, not official results.
FRCinsights
FIRST North Carolina State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction
Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

318.93 – 178.65

85%15%
Actual result
Winner

Red alliance

Final score

390 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 68.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 501.8 ±9.4
8727Glitch 2.0
C
Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 52.59Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
9297BOGOBOTS
C
Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 65.33Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
9496LYNK
A+
Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 201.01Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 314.8 ±9.8
4828RoboEagles
C
Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 89.68Rank 7Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
6639The Mechanical Minds
B
Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 53.84Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
11377Knightmare Robotics
D
Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 35.13Rank 46Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8727, 9297, 9496
80
/ 100 compat
Projected
318.9 pts
~2.1 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 8727, 9297, 9496
Auto
50.5 16%
Teleop
188.1 60%
Endgame
77.3 24%
Strengths
  • · 9496 anchors offense
  • · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 28%
Supercharged: 15%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4828, 6639, 11377
60
/ 100 compat
Projected
178.7 pts
~0.5 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4828, 6639, 11377
Auto
34.0 19%
Teleop
67.8 38%
Endgame
75.0 42%
Strengths
  • · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 28%
Supercharged: 15%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.15 · Blue 0.53
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score318.9pts
Blue projected score178.7pts
Red win probability85%
Event bonus sample230alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 28%, blue 13%
Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 7%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
  • Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
  • Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
  • Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin
140.3
Score range
146–352
Upset likelihood
15%
Data cutoff
2026-08-15
Model
apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 503 vs event baseline 185.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

501.8Season APEX314.8
50.5Auto34
188.1Teleop67.8
77.3Endgame75
17Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

PhaseRedBlue
auto9230
teleop20954
endgame7914
foul1015
total390113

Result

Final score

390 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 68.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree

Match videos

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