Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

137.62 – 160.92

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

119 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 52.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215.3 ±9.8

10248Iron Byrds

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 21.57Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 73.11Rank 50Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 42.94Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 224.3 ±10.4

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 19.21Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7918ReCuRsIoN

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 58.63Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4935T-Rex

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 83.08Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10248, 6894, 7763

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10248, 6894, 7763

Auto

16.6 13%

Teleop

64.8 50%

Endgame

48.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5607, 7918, 4935

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5607, 7918, 4935

Auto

35.8 25%

Teleop

84.4 58%

Endgame

24.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score137.6pts

Blue projected score160.9pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 10%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.3
Score range: 105–194
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 366 vs event baseline 185.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215.3Season APEX224.3

16.6Auto35.8

64.8Teleop84.4

48.5Endgame24.8

85Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	27
teleop	62	153
endgame	40	67
foul	0	0
total	119	247

Result

Final score

119 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 52.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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