Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

123.6 – 97.51

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

97 – 231

Prediction missed · off by 80 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 181.6 ±10.4

11179The Power of Friendship

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 41.5Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 23.79Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 58.31Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.3 ±9.3

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 16.49Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 46.77Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 34.25Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11179, 11353, 5160

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11179, 11353, 5160

Auto

44.5 37%

Teleop

74.6 61%

Endgame

2.6 2%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8205, 8429, 6004

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8205, 8429, 6004

Auto

38.5 38%

Teleop

54.0 54%

Endgame

7.8 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score123.6pts

Blue projected score97.5pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 8%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.1
Score range: 65–157
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 184.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

181.6Season APEX313.3

44.5Auto38.5

74.6Teleop54

2.6Endgame7.8

75Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	56
teleop	31	150
endgame	32	25
foul	5	0
total	97	231

Result

Final score

97 – 231

Prediction missed · off by 80 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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