Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

263.87 – 209.68

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

148 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 95.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 362.1 ±9.8

8757GeodeBots

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 24.36Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 158.23Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1225The Gorillas

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 81.28Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.6 ±10.4

2059The Hitchhikers

Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 95.94Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10302Byte Force

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 14.53Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 99.21Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8757, 4795, 1225

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8757, 4795, 1225

Auto

38.2 14%

Teleop

150.6 57%

Endgame

77.3 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2059, 10302, 6502

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2059, 10302, 6502

Auto

22.8 12%

Teleop

114.9 59%

Endgame

57.8 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.59 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score263.9pts

Blue projected score209.7pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.2
Score range: 177–297
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 185.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

362.1Season APEX268.6

38.2Auto22.8

150.6Teleop114.9

77.3Endgame57.8

94Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	15
teleop	63	90
endgame	59	30
foul	0	0
total	148	135

Result

Final score

148 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 95.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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