Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

92.33 – 141.11

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

63 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 71.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 259.2 ±10.4

11417Nano Knights

Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 29.41Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3336Zimanators

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 44.89Rank 45Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 18.03Rank 49Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 440.3 ±9.8

8746Knights

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX -11.38Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 149.43Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 3.06Rank 36Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11417, 3336, 9788

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11417, 3336, 9788

Auto

27.6 36%

Teleop

21.4 28%

Endgame

26.7 35%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8746, 4561, 2682

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8746, 4561, 2682

Auto

35.7 26%

Teleop

63.1 46%

Endgame

38.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.91 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score92.3pts

Blue projected score141.1pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48.8
Score range: 59–174
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 317 vs event baseline 185.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

259.2Season APEX440.3

27.6Auto35.7

21.4Teleop63.1

26.7Endgame38.2

65Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	33
teleop	28	159
endgame	23	62
foul	0	0
total	63	254

Result

Final score

63 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 71.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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