Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

275.03 – 132.42

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

335 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 39.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 487.6 ±9.3

4829Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 42.51Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 126.32Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 106.2Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 158.3 ±10.4

11285Purple Autobots

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 24.35Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 89.12Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 18.95Rank 40Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4829, 2724, 1533

/ 100 compat

Projected

275 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4829, 2724, 1533

Auto

47.9 18%

Teleop

153.3 57%

Endgame

68.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11285, 3229, 10077

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.4 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11285, 3229, 10077

Auto

16.6 13%

Teleop

68.0 53%

Endgame

44.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.14 · Blue 0.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score275pts

Blue projected score132.4pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 11%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 142.6
Score range: 99–308
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 486 vs event baseline 184.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

487.6Season APEX158.3

47.9Auto16.6

153.3Teleop68

68.5Endgame44.5

56Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	12
teleop	200	91
endgame	77	48
foul	20	0
total	335	151

Result

Final score

335 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 39.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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